Vision & Future Trends

My good friend Dmitriy Minenko from Tourism BC just got a new book and he advised everyone in the last SEO meetup to read it. It is called What would Google do? and it is basically an explanation of what Google stands for, where they are going and what kind of values you MUST embrace if you want to succeed with Google as your main generator of business. Fascinating stuff, as always. 

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Every time I meet with friends, I end up talking about Google, its core business, its vision, why they are not affected by the current economic crisis that is on everybody's mind and a gazillion of other related topics that touches everyone. Apparently I am not the only one who is being asked all sorts of questions about Google. Now, I just got from James from Adhack.com a really thorough presentation about Google that highlights its core competencies in many areas. This slideshow is about everything you always wanted to know about Google (but were afraid to ask) and is useful for everyone who wants to know more about Google and its related businesses.

Here are a list of topics that are presented in the slideshow:

It is good stuff. Future still looks bright. Shades not included.

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I came across a really cool & important article this morning on why your website doesn’t it a traditional call to action. Anyone with a site should read it. It mentions a few things about the use of video on your site, how important it is to introduce yourself and other cool concepts that have nothing to do with what is commonly known as traditional call to action. 

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Infopresse mentionne un autre bon livre concernant l’influence de l’internet. Infopresse reports another great book on Internet’s influence in our daily lives.

Les annuaires en ligne sont souvent préférés aux bottins de papier, les outils de recherche remplacent les recherches conventionnelles et les sites d’actualité font concurrence aux journaux; il n’y a aucun doute, nous sommes désormais dépendants d’internet.

Toutefois, qui dit internet dit informations, données et renseignements laissés un peu partout au gré de nos navigations virtuelles. En somme, l’on est ce que l’on clique.

Click, un ouvrage lancé en septembre prochain, propose une étude sur nos manières de naviguer sur le net et d’enrichir ainsi une intelligence artificielle qui se nourrit des traces que nous y laissons.

Click: What Millions of People Are Doing Online And Why It Matters,
Bill Tancer, Hyperion Books, 2008, 240 pages, 25,95$.

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Too often we (Search Marketing dudes) are being asked what the New Marketing methods can do for any given business. Too often we discover that the people we are talking to do not understand the rules of the new economy which creates some kind of an awkward situation. How can we say that their organization is not suited to fit with the New Marketing (and that there is not much we can do about it)? Seth Godin in his Book the Meatball Sundae answers this question and explain in details the new trends (14 in total) that define the new economy (or New Marketing) and how search marketing, among other things, is especially bad at interrupting people (old marketing). According to Seth, it is all about creating organizations that are in sync with the New Marketing. He provides countless amount of examples that will help you understand his point and how you can transform your business according to these new rules. Failing to do this will end up in a meatball sundae, a real sundae, with meatballs in it - first degree. Yikes.

That being said, this is not a book that I simply suggest or recommend. You MUST read it if you want to re-align your business in order to make sure you can capitalize on the new Marketing tools that are extremely powerful at generating revenues and profit. Buy The Meatball Sundae on Amazon.com.

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Let me just start this with a statement: the risk of doing Search Marketing is actually not doing it. According to Philippe Le Roux, President of Montreal-based Online Marketing agency VDL2 in an article published today in La Presse, talks about how we have reached a critical point where it shows how the Internet has won its battle against traditional media & how we assist at the beginning of a great media revolution. Many other search marketing specialists around the globe concur with his position, where traditional medias are on the verge to extinction. According to Le Roux, the revolution has officially begun and we can already see that the popularity & usage of the Internet is happening at the expense of advertising revenues for print media, TV and radio. Still, Philippe Le Roux is adamant that traditional media resist with all the energy they have left to preserve their advertising revenues. Conservatism and other factors contribute to accelerate the rate of change. The article also shows that profound changes are happening in the way people seek information and how their comfort level with the Internet and Search Engines increase exponentially. 

What’s in it for you?
Le Roux provides all the examples you need so you understand where to put your advertising dollars from now on and why. (Hint: Some of it is called Search Engine Marketing or SEM)

That is a great article sent by my dad, Carl Brabant, who has always been part of battles that were worth fighting for. Thanks Dad! if you want to read the full article, feel free to send me an email and I will send you the PDF. I can’t seem to locate the link to the article online.

Here are a few excerpts from the article: (en français)

Personne ne sera étonné d’entendre, en 2008, que le phénomène Internet bat son plein et que la Grande Toile est devenu le principal média des Canadiens de moins de 35 ans. Et personne ne sourcillera en apprenant que cette révolution se fait au détriment des journaux quotidiens, de la télévision conventionnelle et de la radio. C’était écrit dans le ciel, dira-t-on. Pourtant, les grands médias s’accrochent, résistent, cherchent des voies de préservation pour leur assiette publicitaire. Hier c’était TQS. Qui sera le prochain ? Pour comprendre davantage la situation, j’ai rencontré Philippe Le Roux, président de la firme montréalaise de marketing interactif VDL2, qui, en janvier dernier, annonçait dans le bilan de ses tendances 2006-2010, qu’Internet avait gagné et que les médias ne seraient plus jamais les mêmes.

“Aux États-Unis, affirme-t-il, les recettes publicitaires des quotidiens ont chuté de 8,7 % en 2007 et celles de la télévision et de la radio ont diminué de près de 2 %. Mais en même temps, elles continuent de croître du côté Internet à un taux annuel de 15 à 30 % suivant les marchés. À un point tel qu’en Grande Bretagne, elles devraient dépasser celles de la télévision dès l’an prochain.”

Malgré la distribution grandissante d’exemplaires gratuits ou vendus à fort rabais, la chute de la diffusion des quotidiens continue à se faire sentir. Paradoxalement, alors que “cette uniformisation en cours va à contre-courant de la société de l’information dans laquelle les nouvelles technologies nous plongent, les grands médias ne veulent voir que la relative croissance à court terme du trafic de leur site web”, soutient-il. Le cri du tyrannosaure ? À terme, “cet état de fait risque que de provoquer une rupture radicale entre ces médias et la population”.

Or voilà que cette utilisation croissante du Triple W s’accompagne de facteurs de renforcement qui ne font qu’ajouter au mouvement d’accélération. Une commodité en appelle une autre; plus on en utilise, plus on en utilise ! Un bel exemple est le phénomène communautaire, avec, en fond de scène, une effervescence de gens de plus en plus présents sur le Net pour chercher leur information, confiants de la trouver.

Peut-on parler d’une tendance lourde ? “ Lourde, documentée et inéluctable ! Nous sommes au coeur de la révolution médiatique, celle qui se prépare depuis des années. Les mois à venir vont être riches en rebondissements, réorganisations, remises en question. Cela, quoi qu’en disent, quoi qu’en fassent les grands médias qui, présentement, s’accrochent, résistent et cherchent des voies de sauvegarde pour leur assiette publicitaire. Le mouvement s’accélère et le conservatisme peut être dangereux.”

Tout un programme en perspective!

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Have you ever noticed how the web is filled with religious metaphors? Some people call me a “Search Marketing Evangelist”, maybe because I always speak loud and clear to anyone who wants to hear about the new consumer-driven advertising manifesto. In that spirit, I often refer to Google as the facilitator of truth, because of the waste management process it has to go through in order to find great & authentic stories and present it to you in a consistent and orderly fashion. Google weeds out the crap so you have meaningful resources in the SERPs. As a result, a lot of the search marketing images have some kind of a religious significance: the search of authenticity, democracy & freedom and spreading of ideas and opinion. Gord himself talked about it a while ago on his post about The Evolving Whiff of Authencity which you might want to read as well as in the testing of the Google Toolbar Search Term Suggestions Tool. Every concept surrounding search marketing revolves around the search of authenticity and the tools we currently have help humanity finding the essence in everything we search for.

Talking of essence, Google vice president and chief internet evangelist Vint Cerf (known as the father of the Internet) was interviewed by Suisse publication Das Magazin in Zurich in late November. Here are a few of his statements during this interview that I found specifically inspiring:

“Humanity should understand the blessings of the internet. Our history shows: the more people go online, the more flat hierarchies are becoming.”
“The more people join, the more free the world will be. Indeed I have almost religious faith in this.”
“What were doing is this: Everyday we break our heads on the question of how to organize and archive the whole worlds knowledge to make it accessible to millions of people. That is our vision.”
“99% of all applications are yet to be invented. The internet is mainly software, and software is only limited by our imagination, and our ability to turn ideas into programs. The most trivial will be: our fridge, our oven, our entertainment gadgets “ everything will move online. People will start-up companies to manage other peoples devices.
“Asked about a cult-like worship surrounding Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin: Mr. Brin and Mr. Page are humble, decent and thoughtful men. They are very smart. They talk little. But when they do, you should listen.”
“Asked about the security of the data Google stores in their data centers: First of all, were securing our data through very strict internal rules. Employees which don’t stick to those precise rules are immediately suspended from the company. We have the same sensibility about this as a bank might have. On the data centers: Even when we don’t make them look like a CIA facility we know means to ensure that no one had ever reason to complain about the security of their data with us.”
“On self-censoring in Chinese search results: We debated this internally for one year. Then we decided to offer a censored search engine, but to not offer other services, like Gmail or Blogger. ... We do not want to be getting into a situation where the government asks us: Who wrote this critical blog? Vint adds: Besides: This is the law in China. We don’t want to break the laws of any country. “
“We were and still are very conservative with information about our product plans. We don’t communicate what we do until we do it.”
“We never gave anyone reason for real justified criticism. We have been ordered by courts to release information, but we fought for 9 months and won. We are dependent on our users as we handed them the option to break up with us quickly.”
“The company has a big responsibility and is grateful if it is reminded of it.”
“Asked on when Google will be powerful enough to pressure the Chinese government into accepting Google’s values: We convince governments, but we don’t pressure them.”
“Asked about Google’s recipe for success: Don’t be a threat. Do no evil.”

Vint Cerf, Google’s “Chief Internet Evangelist”

There is something profound about the vision Google has which is led by Vint Cerf. He must be proud to see what it is becoming. Are you converted yet? 

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As we approach the end of the year and make our predictions for the next year in Search Marketing, Gord Hotchkiss from Enquiro hosted a webinar on December 11, 2007 with leading experts on search to discuss its future. They met to share their thoughts on the future of Search in the year 2010 but also what will most likely show up on the radar next year. Enquiro previously released a Search 2010 Whitepaper where topics of discussion included:

* Impact of Personalization of search Search 2010
* How much change will we see in 3 years? In 5 years?
* Impact of Universal Search Results
* The promise of Mobile
* What might happen with search advertising?
* How will the user experience with search evolve?
* What might happen with the search interface as we know it?

What’s The Future of Search Going to Look Like? (and what does it mean to you)
As I was listening to the webinar, which included thoughtful comments by Marissa Mayer, VP, Search Products and User Experience, Google as well as Jakob Nielsen, User Advocate and Principal of Nielsen Norman Group, Chris Sherman, Executive Editor, Search Engine Land & Greg Sterling, Founding Principal, Sterling Market Intelligence among others, I took lots of notes which I want to share with you. These are no scientific findings but my own interpretation of what you can do, in simple terms, to adjust your search marketing plan to the new reality that lies ahead.

Search 2008:
According to Marissa Mayer, Search won’t see drastic changes in the upcoming year. For Google we will most likely see an increased level of experimentation & integration of universal search (aka: blended search, unified, 3D). There will also be improvements on how the Google snippets are collected. (Snippets mean the piece of text below every link on a given search results page). Every search engine is trying to define new technologies to understand every user intent, based on their search query. This gap can not be reached easily according to all the people on the panel and we won’t see any breakthrough on that level anytime soon. No technology can actually make it happen. According to Marissa, most search queries are perfectly acceptable the way they are and even if we add rephrasing of search queries, grammar, refining search queries options or the Yahoo assist technology in the steps of disambiguation of search intent or query refinement, you won’t see a major jump in functionality happening next year. According to Gord Hotchkiss, personalization might be the answer to this challenge of understanding user intent and thus provide more relevant search results.

What do these changes mean to you?
Universal search has had a big impact on capturing user attention on a given search page. In a nutshell, eye tracking studies show that universal search results move the eye scanning process down the page, creating an E-shape form rather than the traditional F-shape form, in the initial golden triangle study:

New E-Shape Form

Traditional Golden Triangle (F-Shape)


Consequences:

There are more eye attention being scattered across the page, especially below the fold of search results (paid and organic).

Same idea (as above) applies to Google paid ads on the right rail

E-shape: means in order to capture attention with the first word on a vertical axis, that word must be the first one in your page title. Make sure your page titles are strong and work with search results.

Google Snippets may no longer be the default Meta Description Tag. Make sure all the text on your site is SEO friendly as every little piece may be called for action in search results.

Adwords: you might get away with lower paid positions (4+) in search results, but there is still a major disconnect when it comes to user eye tracking focus & the PPC opportunity.

Eyes are trained to scan pages, there will be a retraining process involved with universal search which might have an impact on PPC advertising.

Google might want to start finding other revenue sources than traditional PPC ads as they focus on the users in other areas as well as universal search, which they are very keen about. Eye tracking studies show a diminishing amount of attention to paid ads at the top of search results. Therefore, unless these ads are spot on relevant, effectiveness of PPC is slowly going down

Avoid traditional marketing lingo in PPC ads as the use of this terminology will most likely accelerate the ineffectiveness of your PPC ads

Use more down-the-tail search terms in your PPC ads and work harder on your ad copy

The best form of advertising is relevance or no advertising at all (organic results). Put more focus on Organic search in 2008 than you did in 2007.

We may see other ad formats appearing in search results to counter balance the eye scanning retraining process and maintain interest, as these studies point out. Be aware of those.

A better balance in terms of investment should be implemented between SEO and PPC advertising in 2008. 

Closing remarks:
If you want to use Google to promote your business, you have to understand what they do, why and their pace of innovations should be reflected in the innovations you put on your site as well. They provide the rhythm and they make it clear about what they want. Follow it. If you don’t stay informed about what Google does and only look at your online presence from your perspective, it is unlikely that you can succeed in the long run. I recommend that, much like Google, you continue focusing on the users, keep trying with new ideas, put content on your site and evaluate what it does for you. Take risks & innovate and you may be surprised how big you can win in the process. Remember: It is no longer the big eating the small but rather the fast eating the slow. 

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I hope you can read this in its original format. People don’t like any form of interruption advertising. Here is an excerpt from the press release:

Une étude réalisée par Australie et Ipsos met à jour le peu d’estime que portent les consommateurs français à la création publicitaire. Selon cette enquête, 79% d’entre eux trouvent la publicité “envahissante” et 65% la qualifient de “banale”.  Critiques, les Français sont aussi méfiants. La moitié jugent la pub “dangereuse”. Le nombre de publiphobes a d’ailleurs augmenté (30% contre 25% en 2004). Le phénomène est tempéré par Jean-Marc Lech, coprésident d’Ipsos, qui affirme dans une entrevue pour le magazine Influencia, que “ce n’est pas un phénomène militant”.

La recherche révèle par ailleurs que la perception de la pub est influencée par la pratique d’Internet. “Les gros consommateurs d’Internet sont les plus critiques (35% de publiphobes), bien qu’il soient accros de la consommation”, note Vincent Leclabart, président d’Australie. Ils trouvent la pub sur le Net ennuyeuse (73%), terriblement envahissante (94%) et très agressante (77%). Seulement 20% la jugent convaincante. Les Français sont particulièrement virulents envers la publicité télévisée. Ainsi, 90% la jugent envahissante, et 57% l’estiment banale et agressante.

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People fear change. They fear what they don’t understand. I have seen that behavior time and time again in this new field called Search Marketing, the art and science of getting traffic through Search Engines. Whenever I try to convince someone to engage in a Search Marketing project, even the most basic SEO package, business owners feel like they are taking a risk. The ironic part is, the risk is actually much greater if you are NOT doing it. Here is why.

Search is a zero-sum game. If traffic goes to site A, that means it does not go to site B. Have you followed the Search Engines market share landscape lately? Google’s market share is on the rise. Everybody loves Google. When is the last time you search on AOL, Altavista, Ask and even Yahoo or MSN? Ask any Search Engine other than Google what they think about this. If you don’t get in, someone else with nothing to lose will. They will build market share and you won’t. A famous quote from an IBM executive that I have kept over the years goes like this: “It is no longer the big eating the small, but rather, the fast eating the slow”. It does not matter how small or how big your business and your Search Marketing budget is. You HAVE to step in, before your competitors do. 

One of the Search Marketing grand masters, Gord Hotchkiss from Enquiro, wrote another memorable piece last week that is called Caution will kill you in the Search Game. There is a part within this article that I especially liked where he reported a conversation he had a few weeks back about the idea of taking the risk of investing into Search Marketing. Most people want to use caution when investing in Search Engine Marketing (SEM). They watch their competitors and based on this, then decide to move forward or not. Gord mentions, well, those are only the competitors you know about. I bet competition will arise from completely unexpected places. Here is an excerpt that summarizes this perspective: 

But the irony here is that while it appears you have a choice, you really don’t. Because if you don’t take this chance, someone with a lot less to lose will. And eventually, that someone else will win. They’ll win, and you’ll lose, because Web traffic is a zero-sum game. Just ask every search engine who’s not Google. So while it appears there’s way too much to lose by reinventing your business model, it’s much, much riskier not to. Because as much as you think you’re in control of your business, you’re not. The users are, and you have them now by the simple virtue of there not being a better place to go—yet. In the Internet world, there will always be a better place to go, eventually. Either you build it or someone else will.

Have the courage to step in. It will be rewarded. In the end, you don’t have choice.

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After Gord Hotchkiss article (rant) last week following SES Toronto, today Andrew Goodman from traffick.com is putting his 0.02 cents on the future of search Marketing in Canada and why advertisers are acting the way they do. Among other things, he talks about the search subculture and how it will eventually reach C-Level business people in major organizations and how search marketing budget will soon be proportionate to the hockey-stick growth of online usage in Canada. Future looks bright but we need to be patient. Read the full article here.

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I was brainstorming this morning with a friend about their web shop and how the different components of an online development presence & advertising resembles in many points what it currently exists in traditional ad agencies. Online PR, Developers, Copywriters, Designers, Bloggers, Search Specialist and so on are all specialties of the online world and they each have their offline counterpoint. Then I came up with the expression the “Next Ad Agency” and I am wondering what it would be like. If the current ad agency model is based on talking, communicating something, an idea, a product or service, along with a brand message, is it possible that the Next Ad Agency will actually listen?

As a search marketing expert, I can honestly say that I spend more time listening to the searchers, understanding their search patterns and search terms than I spend time communicating to them. I basically don’t communicate much and I don’t need many words. I don’t need many words as I am only answering their request. “Here you will find what you are looking for” is the basis of what I say when I am crafting my copy for a paid search advertising campaign for instance. And you know what? It works! Of course, it can get a little more elaborated than that on the SEO side but there will still be a lot of objective descriptions and simple sentences about what’s on the site. On top of that, when I explain to self-proclaimed communication experts what my communication “strategy” is for my search marketing plan, I often get a glaze on their face as it seems overly simplistic to them. It is simple and I am not ashamed to admit it. Since the consumers are now doing most of the talking, does this mean we have to do most of the Listening? Is it possible that user centricity implies that we start listening more than we talk? And that we can only talk if consumers give us the right to do so? Someone told me once we can way more friends listening than talking. It does work. My uncle was saying: we have 2 ears and one mouth which means we have to listen twice as much as speak. As far as I can see, the Next Ad Agency will do just that.

It seems like polarities have been reversed as consumers are taking control. I love my new verb: “listen”. Let me know what you think. I can’t wait to hear. 

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Enquiro Survey Reveals How Business to Business (B2B) Purchasers Buy. The objective of the survey, conducted with over 1000 B2B buyers, was to discover how people research B2B buying decisions online and how this varies by role within a company and by purchase phase. How do people navigate from awareness, through research and negotiation phases to the actual purchasing decision? What is the balance between online and offline influences? Do purchasers use search engines, and if so, which search engines and why? Do they use specific B2B search engines? When do they refer to a vendor’s site or an industry information site and what do they look for specifically?

This 52 page research document, now available as a free download, gives us valuable information on how to market to B2B companies and the individuals who work for them.

Here’s an excerpt from the Executive Summary:

In this study, we were looking for the answer to one question, with several different parts: How important is online research in business to business (B2B) purchase decisions? We certainly believed it to be important, but even we were surprised by just how important respondents to our survey indicated it was to them. We found a heavy reliance on online research in all aspects of the purchase cycle. We also found that as prospects become aware of potential offerings through offline channels, they naturally turn to online sources to find out more about them. For example, a prospect may become aware of a potential offering at a trade show and the first thing they do is go online to find out more about that offering. One of the more interesting findings of the study was just how important those online influencers could be, in many cases matching the influence of traditional offline factors. A vendor website, together with the perennial offline winner, wordof-mouth from a colleague or peer, were both indicated as the most important influencers in a purchase decision. Close behind were search engines, distributor websites, word-of-mouth from friends or paid consultants and online and offline trade journals.

Another significant finding was where this research tends to happen online. General search engines are often the first place people turn to begin their online research session and among the general search engines, Google holds a dominant position, being the first choice of 77.7% of respondents. As researchers begin to research their purchase, they rely heavily on information from the vendor’s own website. Also, as they enter the later research phase and start compiling information to begin the actual negotiation, many purchasers rely on B2B vertical engines to help gather detailed information they require. Other sources of heavily relied upon information included industry websites, distributor websites and offline channels such as trade journals and other industry publications.

Graph showing results of where the users started their research, by phase:

Download the Enquiro Whitepaper here

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I can not believe it. Yet, it is true. Take a look for yourself. Search Engine Watch Forums just added “Intrusive” ads although most of their readers are saying they are immune against intrusive ads and ignore them out quite easily. In that same vein, I came across another article today that says that intrusive advertising = effective advertising (sorry I misplaced the link) but I could not disagree more. The author tends to believe that we have to live with intrusive advertising because otherwise, it would be disruptive to the economy, especially for new products, you might need. In my opinion, I think people hate bad, intrusive advertising which is clearly explained in this article, which states that more than half of US household use some kind of ad-blocking technology, such as a spam filter or a pop-up blocker. Now, if that is not enough to indicate a trend, I am wondering what would do.

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Danny Sullivan published a great article I stumble upon today about the latest changes at Google about increasing relevancy to their users through personalization & web history. In a nutshell, everyone who has installed the Google Toolbar (and enables the Web History feature) is sending information to Google about which pages they visit. This information is then calculated and the user’s search results get flavored with this increasingly relevant user-specific information. As a result, not all users are seeing the search results in the same order because of this important change. Personalization & the use of Web History then become a new component of Google’s already robust algorithm. According to the article, it seems like web history now has an impact of every site’s ranking where most visited sites get better position.

According to Gord Hotchkiss, who wrote a lot in the last few weeks about Google personalization through web history on his blog at outofmygord.com, this has a much more dramatic impact that most people imagine. Here is an excerpt in Gord’s words:

“With the introduction of Web history, it’s a whole new ballgame in disambiguating intent.  This allows Google to move far beyond the well tred search path and actually taps into your current browsing behavior to try to determine what’s on your mind right now.  If Sep Kamvar’s personalization algorithm is as powerful as I suspect it is, this could dramatically alter the results that you’re seeing.  The promise of personalization is greatest when it can be applied in areas that are new territory for you.  It helps Google interpret just the kind of site you want to see, given your behavior at the present time.”

What does this all mean to you? You have to build better websites with better content that people would visit often and would be calculated in their web history. It is even better if you have a strong repeat percentage of visitors. Make sure you keep adding content to your site, otherwise your web history & PageRank will suffer and your rankings will plummet.  Over the years, Google has made it increasingly more difficult to rank well in search results. This new element is therefore no different than everything they have been doing in the past. It makes a breakthrough though which is why it is worth noticing.

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